Saskatchewan Election Thread.

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Terencius
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Saskatchewan Election Thread.

Post by Terencius » Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:40 pm

Current Standings NDP 30
Saskparty 28 (Conservatives and Liberals by another name)
Liberals 0


My Predicted standings on November 7th
NDP 31
SaskParty 27
Liberals 0 increased vote, but no seats.

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Post by shanebratt » Sun Oct 14, 2007 11:03 pm

Just where are the NDP going to pick up one more seat than they already have?

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Post by Big J » Sun Oct 14, 2007 11:22 pm

My Prediction:

Saskparty 36
NDP 21
Liberal 1 (Karwacki will win his seat this time around)

The NDP's sleazy election campaign is really going to hurt them with more moderate supporters.

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Post by Terencius » Mon Oct 15, 2007 8:33 am

Just where are the NDP going to pick up one more seat than they already have?
Saskatoon, as the Saskparty loses Merrimans seat, thanks to the convict candidate he has been in prison for 21 years, and the Saskparty loses their Justice critic.

They will be down to 1 seat in S'toon, Cheveldaoffs.

Karwacki is going to get beat, again.

NDP hold 11/11 in Regina, pick up 2 in S'toon, and lose Borgerson in Rural Sask.
Leaving a net gain of 1.

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Post by Bastinado » Mon Oct 15, 2007 11:44 am

Terencius wrote:
Just where are the NDP going to pick up one more seat than they already have?
Saskatoon, as the Saskparty loses Merrimans seat, thanks to the convict candidate he has been in prison for 21 years, and the Saskparty loses their Justice critic.

They will be down to 1 seat in S'toon, Cheveldaoffs.

Karwacki is going to get beat, again.

NDP hold 11/11 in Regina, pick up 2 in S'toon, and lose Borgerson in Rural Sask.
Leaving a net gain of 1.
Even though I believe Chev is extremely unintelligent politician, who basically just has a list of responses that he is allowed to say, I don't see him losing his seat.

NDP will lose, they won't get destroyed as much as it looked like a year ago. But I believe they will only hold on to somewhere in the low 20s for seats.
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Post by HapDay » Mon Oct 15, 2007 3:57 pm

My prediction is nobody outside of Saskatchewan will care.
"Do you think it's easy to make priorities?"

--Stephane "Celine" Dion

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Post by Terencius » Mon Oct 15, 2007 7:10 pm

NDP will lose, they won't get destroyed as much as it looked like a year ago. But I believe they will only hold on to somewhere in the low 20s for seats.

How?

Moose Jaw 2 seats.
Regina 11
Saskatoon 10 (2 less for the Saskparty).
Lloyminister 1 ( increasingly more urban and they have oilworkers) a gain from the Saskparty.

Meadow lake 1 Sonntag is popular.

Both Prince Albert seats 2

and the 2 seats in the North.

I count 28, off the top of my head. With at least 22 of those seats that would take a vote shift of some 20% or more, from the last election, for the NDP to lose them. I don't sense a 20% shift as yet.

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Post by Bastinado » Mon Oct 15, 2007 8:51 pm

Terencius wrote:
NDP will lose, they won't get destroyed as much as it looked like a year ago. But I believe they will only hold on to somewhere in the low 20s for seats.

How?

Moose Jaw 2 seats.
Regina 11
Saskatoon 10 (2 less for the Saskparty).
Lloyminister 1 ( increasingly more urban and they have oilworkers) a gain from the Saskparty.

Meadow lake 1 Sonntag is popular.

Both Prince Albert seats 2

and the 2 seats in the North.

I count 28, off the top of my head. With at least 22 of those seats that would take a vote shift of some 20% or more, from the last election, for the NDP to lose them. I don't sense a 20% shift as yet.
Do you have a good place to see the results for each ridings from last year? I'm basing my opinion on a) What I see around me (somewhat skewed considering I'm in my last year of commerce and am basically one of the only socialists around) and b) polling numbers, although the last polling numbers I can remember seeing were from like a year ago when the NDP had like 32% of the popular vote with Sask party having 40%.
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Post by argolio » Mon Oct 15, 2007 9:30 pm

HapDay wrote:My prediction is nobody outside of Saskatchewan will care.
You lose.
My name is Argolio, and I approved this post.

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Post by shanebratt » Mon Oct 15, 2007 9:59 pm

Terencius wrote:
NDP will lose, they won't get destroyed as much as it looked like a year ago. But I believe they will only hold on to somewhere in the low 20s for seats.

How?

Moose Jaw 2 seats.
Regina 11
Saskatoon 10 (2 less for the Saskparty).
Lloyminister 1 ( increasingly more urban and they have oilworkers) a gain from the Saskparty.

Meadow lake 1 Sonntag is popular.

Both Prince Albert seats 2

and the 2 seats in the North.

I count 28, off the top of my head. With at least 22 of those seats that would take a vote shift of some 20% or more, from the last election, for the NDP to lose them. I don't sense a 20% shift as yet.
Several of those guys are gone, are they not? Eric Cline and Andrew Thomson are not running again, for example. You are right that there were some fairly large vote spreads, but those were with some of the people that are no longer running. Considering the NDP is already down, having experienced, well known politicians replaced by inexperienced candidates could easily result in a vote swing of 20%.

Alot of the urban ridings were more closer to 15% vote seperation, not 20%+. For a riding to swing 15% in one election is quite possible.

Yorkton could go Sask Party, the vote was within 10% last time. Regina Wascana Plains was within 6%. Sonntag may be 'popular' but he only won Meadow Lake by 6%, so I think that could potentially go Sask Party. In fact wIth the polling as it is right now, I would say all three of these constituencies are likely going to swing to the Sask Party. With the numbers the way they are... the NDP are going to lose some votes and it won't just be in their strongholds.

Not sure where you get that Lloydminster will go to the NDP because there are more oil workers there? That seems backwards to me.

Honestly Terry, you think the NDP will gain seats in an election where their polling is way down and many of their senior members have left? I just don't see it happening. I guess we'll see though.

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Post by Terencius » Tue Oct 16, 2007 8:53 am

Several of those guys are gone, are they not? Eric Cline and Andrew Thomson are not running again, for example. You are right that there were some fairly large vote spreads, but those were with some of the people that are no longer running. Considering the NDP is already down, having experienced, well known politicians replaced by inexperienced candidates could easily result in a vote swing of 20%.

Alot of the urban ridings were more closer to 15% vote seperation, not 20%+. For a riding to swing 15% in one election is quite possible.

Yorkton could go Sask Party, the vote was within 10% last time. Regina Wascana Plains was within 6%. Sonntag may be 'popular' but he only won Meadow Lake by 6%, so I think that could potentially go Sask Party. In fact wIth the polling as it is right now, I would say all three of these constituencies are likely going to swing to the Sask Party. With the numbers the way they are... the NDP are going to lose some votes and it won't just be in their strongholds.

Not sure where you get that Lloydminster will go to the NDP because there are more oil workers there? That seems backwards to me.

Honestly Terry, you think the NDP will gain seats in an election where their polling is way down and many of their senior members have left? I just don't see it happening. I guess we'll see though.
Some good points.

Sure, the NDP was behind in the polls last time as well. We can argue the 15%-20% and whether or not 30% to 40% of people will SWITCH their vote. Which is really what it means.

I believe that the polls are much closer than the media has portrayed. If they weren't, we wouldn't be having an election.

Realistically, the NDP are only targetting 40 seats.

The NDP could run the "second coming of Jesus" in Cannington, for example, and still lose by a very large margin. Basically, the Saskparty can run up huge majorities and popular vote totals in rural areas in Central and Southern Saskatchewan.

The SaskParty is also not running incumbents in Lloyminister and Humboldt.
To bring in a football analogy, at some point the "old Vets" get old, and it's time to "get younger" with new energy. It's a fine line, just like in football. Both Parties, this time, are replacing aging Veterans with younger people.

However, north of Saskatoon, in certain rural ridings the NDP are extremely competitive.

The Economy is booming, grain prices are up, by and large, and by most measures, not conducted by the Fraser institute, the government has done a good job, I don't see the burning desire for change at this point in time.

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Post by shanebratt » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:59 pm

Terencius wrote:
Several of those guys are gone, are they not? Eric Cline and Andrew Thomson are not running again, for example. You are right that there were some fairly large vote spreads, but those were with some of the people that are no longer running. Considering the NDP is already down, having experienced, well known politicians replaced by inexperienced candidates could easily result in a vote swing of 20%.

Alot of the urban ridings were more closer to 15% vote seperation, not 20%+. For a riding to swing 15% in one election is quite possible.

Yorkton could go Sask Party, the vote was within 10% last time. Regina Wascana Plains was within 6%. Sonntag may be 'popular' but he only won Meadow Lake by 6%, so I think that could potentially go Sask Party. In fact wIth the polling as it is right now, I would say all three of these constituencies are likely going to swing to the Sask Party. With the numbers the way they are... the NDP are going to lose some votes and it won't just be in their strongholds.

Not sure where you get that Lloydminster will go to the NDP because there are more oil workers there? That seems backwards to me.

Honestly Terry, you think the NDP will gain seats in an election where their polling is way down and many of their senior members have left? I just don't see it happening. I guess we'll see though.
Some good points.

Sure, the NDP was behind in the polls last time as well. We can argue the 15%-20% and whether or not 30% to 40% of people will SWITCH their vote. Which is really what it means.

I believe that the polls are much closer than the media has portrayed. If they weren't, we wouldn't be having an election.

Realistically, the NDP are only targetting 40 seats.

The NDP could run the "second coming of Jesus" in Cannington, for example, and still lose by a very large margin. Basically, the Saskparty can run up huge majorities and popular vote totals in rural areas in Central and Southern Saskatchewan.

The SaskParty is also not running incumbents in Lloyminister and Humboldt.
To bring in a football analogy, at some point the "old Vets" get old, and it's time to "get younger" with new energy. It's a fine line, just like in football. Both Parties, this time, are replacing aging Veterans with younger people.

However, north of Saskatoon, in certain rural ridings the NDP are extremely competitive.

The Economy is booming, grain prices are up, by and large, and by most measures, not conducted by the Fraser institute, the government has done a good job, I don't see the burning desire for change at this point in time.
Football has a word for what you just described. It is called a 'rebuilding year'. Then again, the Riders were supposed to have a rebuilding year as well. Nov 7th will be very interesting anyway.

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Post by HapDay » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:00 pm

argolio wrote:
HapDay wrote:My prediction is nobody outside of Saskatchewan will care.
You lose.
Have a look at this thread again. Point, match, me.
"Do you think it's easy to make priorities?"

--Stephane "Celine" Dion

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Post by green ty » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:03 pm

So, if the NDP win the election, does rural Saskatchewan decide to seperate from Saskatoon and Regina?? :wink:

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Post by Terencius » Tue Oct 16, 2007 6:54 pm

So, if the NDP win the election, does rural Saskatchewan decide to seperate from Saskatoon and Regina??
I Hope So :o :evil:

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