so after all that...

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Kanga-Kucha
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so after all that...

Post by Kanga-Kucha » Sat Jan 31, 2009 1:15 pm

Harper remains as PM, but now has to act like a neoliberal thanks to the left (especially the liberals) who now will hold his fate in their hands until the next election.

am I upset that Harper got another chance, no, but I am upset over how Layton and the bloc reacted to it, cuz I do believe that the coalition should hav continued as least as an agreement of support between the left parties, this is a great opportunity for the Left parties to cooperate together and maybe from a new party like the right has done the last ten years or so, so it must not be wasted.

In any case, the Liberals will need to call on the NDP and Bloc again if they find that the budget isn’t working the way they hoped for, and/or Harper sends them disinformation to show that the budget is working when it isn’t.

I am still optimistic that the Liberals and NDP will someday form a new left party together, but there is much work to be done to achieve such a goal.

I hav been thinking about who would benefit from all this in the next election, and the only party that I can think of that will make any gains is the Bloc, as here is why:

Conservative +/-: The big question for them is will they get a majority next time? I don’t believe they will, as their actions will lose them all their seats in Quebec, where they currently hold ten, so taking away those ten seats, they would have to make up 17 or more seats in the next election to win a majority. The results from the other provinces will be mixed, some will gain seats for them (Alberta's only NDP seat is very vulnerable), some will lose them. it makes you wonder with the situation as is, with the conservatives being forced to be spenders, and will Harper's lies and mistakes (calling for an election to get a majority in a bad economic year, coming up with a very right wing budget in a minority parliament (acting like they had a majority), alienating Newfoundland/Labrador and Quebec) if it would be better for the next election to hav a new leader, but it seems unlikely as Harper has an iron hand over the conservative party and the Left coalition isn’t interested in forcing the Tories to change leaders. It’s likely the conservatives will from a new minority government next time, but at what cost?

Liberals +/-: The new liberal leader (I can’t spell his name, so I will not try) is doing damage control, and is basically trying to appease both pro and anti coalition forces in the liberal party. He seems to also want to give the Tories a chance to moderate and change, and if they don’t imo, he will call on the coalition to form a government. Dion did a lot of damage to the party and to the coalition; he resigned after the election, but then tried to form a coalition with him as temporary PM until the party chose a new leader. From the start it doomed the coalition cuz w/o a solid leader there was no way the GG would approve a government for them (imo having Layton be temporary PM made more sense than Dion), not forgetting that the economic group they were forming, 2 of the 4 members turned down their invitations to join. I could go on about what Dion did, but I think the rest is pretty evident. I wish they Liberals demanded more of the Tories as far as this budget goes, but at least they hav a check on them, and from the talk of the Tories, they weren’t going to change a thing. Liberal and moderate voters will likely vote Liberal, but it’s unlikely the liberals will be very successful in the next election if at all.

NDP +/-: Well Layton has done what no NDP party has done before; he almost formed a part of a federal government. You can’t blame him for that, as that is the goal of any party is to gain some form of control. Until this week, he looked very good and strong, until the coalition fell apart and he got upset and started acting as a child, which won him nothing. The NDP also called for all anti conservative and Harper voters to vote for the NDP in the next election, so we will see how that works for them, but it's likely they will lose a few seats in the west such as Alberta. Hopefully it will not become another 1993 for them, but I am hopeful they will gain a one or two seats in Ontario, the Atlantics, and the territories, possibly adding to their current count in parliament.

Bloc +: Harper's attacks against the Bloc and his alienation of Quebec have severely damaged any conservatives in Quebec, the ADQ lost in the last Quebec elections showed that. I expect a similar outcome in the next federal elections, with all conservatives’ seats in Quebec going up in smoke, most of which going to the Bloc. It’s also I think a very strong possibly that all of Quebec, except maybe Montreal, going for the Bloc.

One last thing, i read this article bout coalitions, and found it to be very relevant to Canadian politics in the future.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ ... y/politics

So that’s about all I hav to say on the matter, what are your thoughts everyone?
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argolio
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Re: so after all that...

Post by argolio » Sat Jan 31, 2009 10:27 pm

Kanga-Kucha wrote:I am still optimistic that the Liberals and NDP will someday form a new left party together, but there is much work to be done to achieve such a goal.
Unless the Conservatives were to win a whole bunch of majorities in a row, I can't see that ever happening.
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Kanga-Kucha
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Re: so after all that...

Post by Kanga-Kucha » Sun Feb 01, 2009 10:32 pm

argolio wrote:
Kanga-Kucha wrote:I am still optimistic that the Liberals and NDP will someday form a new left party together, but there is much work to be done to achieve such a goal.
Unless the Conservatives were to win a whole bunch of majorities in a row, I can't see that ever happening.
well thats very possible, and ever a whole lot of tory minority govements would do the trick as well imo. Right now for the Left is a sismuler sisnario to the right in the 90's, two parties with differences that slowly were overcome to from a new major party.

The liberals are on their backs and are losing ground, and the NDP is going though a Thrid Way transition like the Labour parties in the UK, Australia, etc. They are moving slowly closer to eachother, with a few bumps here and there, to a point where they will one day meage imo. However their is still an intence socalist part of the NDP, that would likly become a causus in any new Liberal-NDP party as all Labour parties hav, that wouldnt be so easy to lose more power in an Liberal-NDP union, that will be the major hundle, as well as the Martin Faction in the Liberals, who could just spilt off and from a new thrid party. Also any Liberal-NDP party will be dominated by mostly Liberals or fromer NDPs, with a few exceptions like Layton, as the makeup of the coalition suggested.
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Re: so after all that...

Post by Kanga-Kucha » Sun Feb 01, 2009 10:47 pm

I forgot one thing, and thats the Green Party

I dont see them gaining much if anything from the next election, but Harper has a great opportinity to turn the Green Party to his side if he is smart, this will hurt any left coalition and strenth any relationship he has with the Liberals to date.

That is to give Elizebeth May a seat in the Senate in March, a senate seat from Nova Scotia, her home province, will become avalible to fill.

While Harper has shown little interest in enviromental policies to date, if he were to offer the seat to her, and for her to accept, it would take away most green party support for any future left coalition, and give more legitimacy to any green polics the tories hav. It mite also swith more moderate and green voters for him in the next election. It would be a sinficant blow. If she were to refuse, however, he would still come out clean from it, and likly get a few benefits.

Its an opportunity that he cant pass up, and would be a fool to blow it, like he did last decrember.
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