Canada Votes 2011

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Sir Purrcival
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Canada Votes 2011

Post by Sir Purrcival » Tue May 03, 2011 1:30 am

This is a repeat of a post at Lionbackers. Feel free to flame, discuss.

Well, this was certainly an interesting election.

My biggest fear with Harper is that he has been secretive and disrespectful of the democratic process and that was when he had to make it work as a Minority Gov. My fear is that without that sword hanging over him, there is nothing to restrain him for the next 4 years. Having said that however, the people have spoken and it is what it is. He did make some good noises in his victory speech about representing all Canadians. I only hope that they are more than words.

The NDP - not sure they have reason to be so happy. Basically they have 4 years to make themselves into a bonafide opposition party. The landslide they got in Quebec this election is likely a one off. If they want this to translate into more than one term of Official Opposition or dare I say future government, they are going to have to make bigger strides in the rest of the country. They aren't go to get by being shut out of the prairies. As it stands, they now have less power than they did when Harper had a minority. They can talk all they want about taking government to task but as it stands now, they can't do a thing about it.

Liberals - what can you say. I wonder how many seats they lost tonight because they and the NDP split the left vote letting the Cons ride the backs of the right? I think Iggy is gone. CBC spent a lot of time with Justin Trudeau tonight. Suspect you might be looking at the next Liberal leader. He is young but he has his father's legacy working for him, is apparently popular in Quebec and has appeal in other quarters of the country. He represents the kind of renewal that the Liberals need to undergo. He has at least 4 years for seasoning. I wouldn't be surprised to see his name rise to the top of possible Iggy replacements. The Liberals can't afford to be "wrong" again in their next choice for leader.

Bloc - victims of a stale party and message. Make no mistake, the separatists are alive and well in Quebec. It won't be long before the wave of enthusiasm over the NDP will wane as they realize that
A. they are basically on the outside of power looking in just as they were voting with the Bloc
B. that they are now represented by a party that can't afford to look too "pro Quebec" without risking support in other area's of the country.
Roughly 40% of Quebecers have some kind of affinity for separation, that didn't disappear in one election and with a new leader, look to see the Bloc or some other version of the Bloc gain traction again.


Green's - Historic night for them but a long way to go. It takes 12 seats to gain official party status. They are nowhere close to this and in fact their popular vote went down tonight as compared to the last election. Again, four years to gain some traction but I don't think they are quite that close yet. They will need to field other credible candidates who are capable of winning seats too or their success on the night will be confined to the annals of Canadian Political Trivia. At least she won't have to fight to get into the next Election Debate.

Summary - Harper has got his majority, lets see if can manage the country the way he says he can without the excuse of a minority status holding him back. He has made election promises that he now has no reason for not keeping unless financially they are as untenable as they sound. There will be hot button issues too like the Long Gun registry. He can easily do away with it now if he so chooses. He will alienate law enforcement if he does and he will alienate the rural areas if he doesn't. Should be able to push legislation on the Senate too, either elected or abolished. That was a big issue of his in the past but he should be able to make good on it now.
If he can find a way to put some civility into his dealings with parliament, then perhaps it will all be fine but I hope that he finds a better more cooperative leadership style. If he chooses to do things "my way or the highway", then we are in for a long 4 years and won't be able to do anything about it cept survey the damage when he is done.
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Re: Canada Votes 2011

Post by Dave in Korea » Tue May 03, 2011 4:12 am

I'm most interested to see what he does regarding the Senate.

After the liberals decided they could better choose Alberta's representative than the voters of Alberta could, they lost my vote for good.

I hope the Senate becomes elected. Abolished would be my second choice. If nothing happens on that front, I'll be disappointed for sure.

On most other issues, I'm not particularly worried about a Harper majority. I guess we'll get to see if there really is a hidden social agenda. It will also be interesting to see how the NDP can position themselves as official opposition.

It feels weird having neither the PC nor the Liberal party in either power or opposition . . . never would have thought that possible 20 years ago.
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Re: Canada Votes 2011

Post by Hymie » Tue May 03, 2011 4:51 am

One thing Harper should remember: He may have won a majority, but 60% of the people did not vote for him. Is he going to take that into consideration? Somehow, I doubt it. :thdn:
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Re: Canada Votes 2011

Post by Dave in Korea » Tue May 03, 2011 5:52 am

Hymie wrote:One thing Harper should remember: He may have won a majority, but 60% of the people did not vote for him. Is he going to take that into consideration? Somehow, I doubt it. :thdn:
Yeah, it reminds me of the days when we had the Reform party and the PCs splitting the conservative vote and allowing the liberals their majorities.

It would be nice, though costly, to have a second-round of voting system, where if a majority in a riding is not achieved a second round of voting with only the top 2 candidates available then decides the winner. Then the majority would at least get their second choice as a rep.

This is also one of the reasons I'd like to see an effective, elected Senate--to act as a real check/balance to parliament.
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Re: Canada Votes 2011

Post by Sir Purrcival » Tue May 03, 2011 9:14 am

Hymie wrote:One thing Harper should remember: He may have won a majority, but 60% of the people did not vote for him. Is he going to take that into consideration? Somehow, I doubt it. :thdn:
It is an amazing change in power when you consider that in terms of popular vote, the Cons only went up by something like 1.8% last night. The results that we saw are really more about a collapse of the Liberals and sudden rise in popularity by the NDP. Not enough by the latter to really put a nail in the coffin of the Liberals but more than enough to really split the left vote and give the Cons a strong majority.
Last edited by Sir Purrcival on Tue May 03, 2011 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Canada Votes 2011

Post by Solar Max » Tue May 03, 2011 9:54 am

Hymie wrote:One thing Harper should remember: He may have won a majority, but 60% of the people did not vote for him. Is he going to take that into consideration? Somehow, I doubt it. :thdn:
I have heard that same rant for 8 elections in a row. The winning party rarely gets more than that.

That's our system. If you want to change it, run for office.

Ever notice that when a left wing candidate wins office, the system worked, but when he doesn't, the system has to be overhauled?

So overhaul it. And we'll get Italian style governments for the foreseeable future.
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Re: Canada Votes 2011

Post by B-17 » Tue May 03, 2011 11:28 am

My predication - Harper will do a few non-controversial items from his agenda like scrapping the long gun registry. He will be going out of his way not to be too radical in year one, so he can avoid the cries of "hidden agenda" from the opposition. However, year 2 will be where he really swings to the right (e.g. privatization options in health care, more corporate and high earner tax cuts). Years 3 and 4 will be milder, closer to centre initiatives to demonstrate a balanced gov't and take any potential momentum away from the NDP and Libs (e.g don't give them any ammunition to use against him). Then, will try to ride this into another majority gov't. And they will also pander to Quebec in years 3 and 4, because now that the Bloc hold is broken, they will try to convince quebec that being part of a majority gov't will bring greater benefits.

NDP - if they hope to become gov't, they have to develop a simple message and hammer it for the next four years: they speak for the working and middle class Canadians on quality health care, jobs, and a strong economy (balance between fair taxation and business friendly). Then spend the next four years hammering Harper in gov't for not making improvements in these areas, and they would do better. A focused message is what got them to where they are. They will need to show they represent Quebec values (very socialist) and being heard in Parliament, while not supporting separatism. If they can show Quebec that they are benefitting from being part of a strong opposition as opposed to a separatist Bloc that wasn't interested in federal solutions. And if there are any scandals they can leverage (like the Cons did against the Libs when they won over them), they stand a legit shot of at least keeping their gains.

Liberals - need to reestablish themselves as being a strong central alternative, able to speak for the moderate position in the middle. But may find themselves squeezed out. Time for new, fresh thinking to distinguish themselves from "old" Liberals. Will need strong debaters and speakers who will be able to make the most of limited face time.
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Re: Canada Votes 2011

Post by CatsEyes » Tue May 03, 2011 1:02 pm

B-17 wrote:
NDP - if they hope to become gov't, they have to develop a simple message and hammer it for the next four years: they speak for the working and middle class Canadians on quality health care, jobs, and a strong economy (balance between fair taxation and business friendly).
:rotf: :rotf: :rotf:


Oh...you were serious. ;)

All the NDpers here want is to plant flower beds in the middle of the main thoroughfare from the Naval base for the sole purpose of impeding traffic and stopping people from getting to and from work. Sucks to be us.
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Re: Canada Votes 2011

Post by Hymie » Tue May 03, 2011 8:52 pm

Solar Max wrote:
Hymie wrote:One thing Harper should remember: He may have won a majority, but 60% of the people did not vote for him. Is he going to take that into consideration? Somehow, I doubt it. :thdn:
I have heard that same rant for 8 elections in a row. The winning party rarely gets more than that.

That's our system. If you want to change it, run for office.

Ever notice that when a left wing candidate wins office, the system worked, but when he doesn't, the system has to be overhauled?

So overhaul it. And we'll get Italian style governments for the foreseeable future.
No, I haven't noticed that at all. :roll:
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Re: Canada Votes 2011

Post by Randy Brule » Wed May 04, 2011 6:03 am

B-17 wrote:My predication - Harper will do a few non-controversial items from his agenda like scrapping the long gun registry. He will be going out of his way not to be too radical in year one, so he can avoid the cries of "hidden agenda" from the opposition. However, year 2 will be where he really swings to the right (e.g. privatization options in health care, more corporate and high earner tax cuts). Years 3 and 4 will be milder, closer to centre initiatives to demonstrate a balanced gov't and take any potential momentum away from the NDP and Libs (e.g don't give them any ammunition to use against him). Then, will try to ride this into another majority gov't. And they will also pander to Quebec in years 3 and 4, because now that the Bloc hold is broken, they will try to convince quebec that being part of a majority gov't will bring greater benefits.
Or he could do what Dalton McGuinty did and break all his campaign promises in the first 2 months, counting on the short-term memory of the voters by the time the next election rolls around.

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